17 marca 2018

Wykres dnia - ropa

W końcu nastąpi wybicie na ropie teksańskiej.





Obecnie test górnego ograniczenia.

20 komentarzy:

  1. A gauge of stress in the U.S. money markets grew to its highest level in more than six years on Thursday, bolstering the risk of further increase in the costs for banks and other companies to borrow dollars https://reut.rs/2GwtsZx

    investment-grade debt market is losing steam after years of torrid gains, as rising rates and talk of tariffs weigh on the outlook for corporate profit.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-16/investors-have-issues-with-corporate-america-s-new-bond-issues

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    1. LIBOR - a benchmark short-term interbank lending rate - is increasing (27 straight sessions) and rising more rapidly than the overnight indexed swap (OIS) rate (indicative of a risk-free borrowing rate). Essentially, short-term borrowing rates are rising while Credit risk premiums are increasing. Liquidity is becoming less abundant, and there are numerous explanations posited: The Fed is raising rates and reducing its balance sheet, massive T-bill issuance, tax cuts have incentivized U.S. multinational repatriation of funds (selling short-term instruments in the process) and less QE from the EC

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  2. March 14 - Financial Times (Katrina Manson): "Mike Pompeo's appointment as America's top diplomat puts a populist hawk in charge of foreign policy at a critical point in the country's strained relations with Iran, North Korea and Russia. The former Central Intelligence Agency director has touted the benefits of regime change in Iran and North Korea, and will probably push for a much tougher posture on both than his ousted predecessor Rex Tillerson. 'Pompeo wants to further the president's agenda,' said an administration official, contrasting him with Mr Tillerson, whose few fans saw him as a bulwark for a liberal global order under attack from a nationalistic and isolationist president."

    March 15 - Bloomberg (Justin Sink and Steve Matthews): "Larry Kudlow wasted no time in showing Wall Street and Washington that he's ready to serve as an unabashed economic warrior for President Donald Trump. Within minutes of being named as top White House economic adviser…, Kudlow was on the airwaves to push a tough stance toward China and promise a new phase of tax cuts -- hitting two of Trump's favorite talking points and making clear why he was chosen for the job. Trump confirmed the selection… on Twitter. 'Our Country will have many years of Great Economic & Financial Success, with low taxes, unparalleled innovation, fair trade and an ever expanding labor force leading the way! #MAGA,' Trump tweeted. Kudlow… has demonstrated a Trump-like willingness to ignore taboos. In a rare departure for someone about to take a senior government job, he questioned Federal Reserve monetary policy and even offered a trading recommendation: 'I would buy King Dollar and I would sell gold.'

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  3. March 13 - Politico (Adam Behsudi and Andrew Restuccia): "President Donald Trump is getting ready to crack down on China. Trump told Cabinet secretaries and top advisers during a meeting at the White House last week that he wanted to soon hit China with steep tariffs and investment restrictions in response to allegations of intellectual property theft, according to three people familiar with the internal discussions. During the meeting… U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer presented Trump with a package of tariffs that would target the equivalent of $30 billion a year in Chinese imports. In response, Trump urged Lighthizer to aim for an even bigger number - and he instructed administration officials to be ready for a formal announcement in the coming weeks…"

    March 14 - Reuters (David Lawder): "The Trump administration is pressing China to cut its trade surplus with the United States by $100 billion, a White House spokeswoman said…, clarifying a tweet last week from President Donald Trump. Last Wednesday, Trump tweeted that China had been asked to develop a plan to reduce its trade imbalance with the United States by $1 billion, but the spokeswoman said Trump had meant to say $100 billion. The United States had a record $375 billion trade deficit with China in 2017…"

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  4. March 12 - Bloomberg (Sarah McGregor): "The U.S. recorded a $215 billion budget deficit in February -- its biggest in six years -- as revenue declined. Fiscal income dropped to $156 billion, down 9% from a year earlier, while spending rose 2% to $371 billion… The deficit for the fiscal year that began in October widened to $391 billion, compared with a $351 billion shortfall the same period a year earlier… The data underscore concerns by some economists that Republican tax cuts enacted this year could increase the U.S. government debt load, which has surpassed $20 trillion. The tax changes are expected to reduce federal revenue by more than $1 trillion over the next decade, while a $300 billion spending deal reached by Congress in February could push the deficit higher."

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  5. Home prices in the U.S. surged 8.8% in February -- the biggest gain in four years -- as buyers battled for an increasingly scarce resource: homes. While sales were little changed amid the thin inventory, the median price across 172 large metropolitan areas jumped to $285,700, according to… brokerage Redfin Corp. It was the 72nd straight month of year-over-year increases since the market bottomed in 2012. U.S. home prices are now 6.3% higher than their peak in July 2006 and 46% above their trough in February 2012, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home-price index

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    1. "Not enough for-sale signs in front yards are driving residential home prices higher, the chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association said… Compounding the problem is that Americans' wage growth is being left far behind, according to the MBA's Mike Fratantoni. 'We're still seeing home prices increase at twice the rate of income growth,' he told CNBC… 'The major constraint in the market right now is the lack of supply,' Fratantoni said. 'The absolute number of units on the market is near an all-time record low.' Fratantoni said homebuilders are trying to increase their pace of construction but 'not fast enough.'"

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    2. "Higher interest rates caused applications to refinance a home loan to fall 2% for the week and 18% from a year ago, when rates were lower. The refinance share of all mortgage applications fell to 40%, the lowest since 2008
      https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/13/mortgage-refinances-fall-to-decade-low.html

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  6. March 15 - Reuters: "U.S. import prices rose more than expected in February as the largest increase in the cost of capital goods since 2008 offset a drop in petroleum prices, bolstering views that inflation will pick up this year. …Import prices increased 0.4% last month after a downwardly revised 0.8% surge in January. Economists… had forecast import prices climbing 0.2% in February… In the 12 months through February, import prices increased 3.5% after rising 3.4% in the 12 months through January."

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  7. March 12 - CNBC (Jeff Cox): "Companies have been feverishly putting the savings they reaped from the tax breaks passed in December into their investors' pockets this year. Share buybacks in 2018 have averaged $4.8 billion a day, double the pace for the same period last year, according to… TrimTabs. That comes following Congress's move to slash the corporate tax rate from the highest-in-the-world 35% to 21%. The buyback announcements also have happened amid a volatile backdrop for the stock market… The share repurchases have helped keep the market afloat, as investors have pulled $23.5 billion out of funds that focus on U.S. stocks this year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch."

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  8. The U.S. Senate voted 67 to 31… to ease bank rules, bringing Congress a step closer to passing the first rewrite of the Dodd-Frank reform law enacted after the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-senate-banks/senate-approves-bill-rewriting-post-crisis-bank-rules-idUSKCN1GQ32N

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  9. March 13 - Wall Street Journal (Tom Hancock and Lucy Hornby): "China has unveiled a sweeping revamp of its government bureaucracies, breaking up traditional power structures as President Xi Jinping attempts to fuse the ruling Communist party into the day-to-day operations of the state. The changes are aimed at streamlining the civil government and closing regulatory gaps that have frustrated Beijing's attempts to implement central policy. However, they will also allow closer alignment between the party and the civil bureaucracies, giving the CCP a greater role in day-to-day governance. Among the biggest changes is the creation of a National Supervision Commission that subjects a wider-range of government staff, such as hospital managers and university staff, to the party's internal disciplinary apparatus, reversing a division of labour that has been in place for decades."

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    1. March 12 - Bloomberg: "China unveiled a 'revolutionary' government restructuring plan that consolidates Communist Party authority, giving President Xi Jinping more direct control over the levers of money and power. The plan put before China's rubber-stamp parliament… calls for giving the People's Bank of China greater oversight in the $43 trillion banking and insurance industry and merging regulators that oversee the sector. The plan's goal was 'strengthening the Communist Party's overall leadership' of the state, the document said."

      March 12 - Bloomberg: "China is giving its central bank the power to write the rules for the financial sector, as part of a sweeping overhaul aimed at closing regulatory loopholes and curbing risk in the $43 trillion banking and insurance industries. The China Banking Regulatory Commission and the China Insurance Regulatory Commission will be merged in the biggest industry overhaul since 2003. Some of their functions, including drafting key regulations and prudential oversight, will move to the People's Bank of China… A new regulatory structure with the PBOC as the pivot is emerging as the annual legislative meetings progress through their second week. Still to come are personnel appointments…"

      March 12 - Bloomberg (Enda Curran): "When Zhou Xiaochuan hands over the reins of the People's Bank of China after 15 years in control, his successor will take charge of a central bank with unprecedented global influence. The economy's size has ballooned from $1.5 trillion in 2002 when he started… to about $12 trillion today. China is estimated to have contributed more than a third of global growth last year… The nation surpassed the U.S. as the world's biggest oil importer last year, buying about 8.43 million barrels a day. It's also the world's biggest trading nation with total trade of $3.82 trillion in 2016, ahead of $3.58 trillion for the U.S. Other central banks are scrambling to deepen links and decipher PBOC policies. Reserve managers including the Bundesbank are buying yuan, Thailand has joined countries extending a currency swap arrangement while the Bank of Indonesia is opening a representative office in Beijing this year -- the ninth central bank to establish an office in China."

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    2. March 12 - Financial Times (Gideon Rachman): "The foundations of America's relationship with China crumbled last week. The key developments were a lurch by the US towards protectionism and a swing by China towards one-man rule. For the past 40 years, the world's two largest economies have both embraced globalisation, based on understandings about how the other would behave. The Chinese assumed that the US would continue to support free trade. The Americans believed that economic liberalisation in China would eventually lead to political liberalisation. Both of these assumptions are now shattered. On Sunday, China's National People's Congress rubber-stamped a constitutional change that would allow President Xi Jinping to rule for life. Three days earlier, President Donald Trump announced tariffs on steel and aluminium and tweeted that 'trade wars are good and easy to win'."

      March 15 - Financial Times (Gabriel Wildau and Jane Pong): "China is not immune to the charms of symbolic gestures when they serve a diplomatic purpose. From 2005 to 2014, when US criticism of China for undervaluing its currency was a big bilateral issue, Beijing frequently pushed the renminbi higher in advance of international summits and state visits, only to revert once international attention had faded. But this time - faced with demands by President Donald Trump to cut the bilateral trade deficit by $100bn - Beijing has few easy options. 'If you look at China's overall trade or current account surplus, we can't really call that a mercantilist or excess-saving economy,' says Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics... 'China now runs trade deficits with many countries, but it happens to run big surpluses with US, Europe and India - three regions where there is now increasing momentum towards protectionism.'"

      March 11 - Reuters (Elias Glenn): "Any trade war with the United States will only bring disaster to the world economy, Chinese Commerce Minister Zhong Shan said…, as Beijing stepped up its criticism on proposed metals tariffs by Washington amid fears it could shatter global growth."

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  10. March 14 - Financial Times (Claire Jones): "Mario Draghi has set out his intent for how the European Central Bank will raise interest rates, advocating a moderate series of rises after the bank ends its extraordinary stimulus measures. A commitment to slow and cautious rises could set the path of ECB policy beyond the end of Mr Draghi's term of office next year and make it more difficult for his successor to deviate from his dovish monetary policy. Mr Draghi reiterated… that the central bank would not raise rates until 'well past' the end of its bond-buying programme, known as quantitative easing, which is expected by the latter stages of this year."

    March 14 - Bloomberg (Piotr Skolimowski): "Mario Draghi said the European Central Bank will avoid surprising investors with sudden changes to its stimulus plans, stressing that inflation is still too low and U.S. trade policies and a stronger euro are concerns. 'Adjustments to our policy will remain predictable, and they will proceed at a measured pace,' the institution's president said in his opening speech at the annual ECB and Its Watchers conference… 'We still need to see further evidence that inflation dynamics are moving in the right direction. So monetary policy will remain patient, persistent and prudent.'"

    March 13 - Reuters (Leika Kihara): "Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda… voiced confidence the central bank could engineer a smooth exit from its ultra-loose monetary policy, but said it was too early to debate specifics with inflation still distant from its target. 'By combining various tools, it's possible to shrink the BOJ's balance sheet at an appropriate pace while keeping markets stable,' Kuroda told parliament…"

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  11. March 11 - Reuters (Claire Milhench): "Chinese banks have significantly stepped up their lending activities in recent years to rank now as the sixth-largest international creditor group, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said… The BIS, an umbrella body for global central banks, said in its latest report that Chinese banks had cross-border financial assets worth about $2 trillion as of the third quarter of 2017. As Chinese banks lend abroad largely in U.S. dollars, in absolute terms this makes them the third-largest provider of U.S. dollars to the international banking system… 'Their global footprint encompasses not just emerging market economies, but also advanced economies and offshore centers worldwide,' the BIS said."

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  12. March 12 - Bloomberg (David Goodman and Sharon R Smyth): "London house prices are falling at the fastest pace since the depths of the recession almost a decade ago, with the capital's most expensive areas seeing the biggest declines. Average prices fell to 593,396 pounds ($820,000) in January, an annual decline of 2.6%... That's the most since August 2009."

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  13. March 12 - Reuters (Max Bower): "Senior participants are warning that today's market could be as good as it gets, despite a robust global economic backdrop and buoyant mood in the private equity and leveraged loan markets. Comparisons to 2007's pre-crisis conditions are becoming more common and industry figures are debating whether today's robust conditions constitute a bubble, as purchase prices rise, jumbo buyouts proliferate and deal terms become more aggressive. 'I think we're now in bubble territory,' said Frode Strand-Nielsen, founder of Nordic private equity firm FSN Capital. Leveraged buyout purchase price multiples hit a record high of 11.2 times average Ebitda in 2017 and average buyout sizes also hit a new record of US$675m in the third quarter of 2017, up from 10 times in 2016, according to… Bain & Co."

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  14. skad bierzesz ten news feed jesli to nie tajemnica? bardzo dobry, skondensowany :)

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  15. Dobry długi read o chinach
    https://nb.sinocism.com/p/understanding-chinas-rise-under-xi-jinping-by-the-honourable-kevin-rudd

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